Proxima Alpha
Using cyber conflict data from the Dyadic Cyber Incident Dataset (DCID) between China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and NATO countries (2005–2023), construct a temporal network of cyber aggressions, estimate attack intensity using a Hawkes process, and predict the most likely cyber escalation dyads for 2024.
29-Oct-2025 08:18:07Step-by-step plan for analysis:
- Obtain the Dyadic Cyber Incident Dataset (DCID) data for cyber incidents involving China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and NATO countries from 2005 to 2023.
- Construct a temporal network where nodes represent actors (countries or alliances) and directed edges represent cyber aggression incidents over time.
- Use a Hawkes process model to estimate the intensity of attacks, which captures self-exciting behavior typical in cyber conflict data (i.e., attacks provoke subsequent attacks).
- Based on the model estimation, predict the most likely dyads for cyber escalation in 2024.
- Visualize the temporal network and intensity estimates graphically.
Current status: I am unable to directly access the Dyadic Cyber Incident Dataset (DCID) or exact incident data from 2005-2023 for the specified actors within this session. This dataset is specialized and typically accessed through security research databases or restricted repositories.
To proceed, I require either the dataset file upload from you or a summary of incident counts per dyad per year. Alternatively, I can simulate or outline the Hawkes model method with example synthetic data and produce illustrative visualizations explaining the process clearly.
Please provide the incident data or confirm if I should proceed with a detailed methodological explanation combined with simulated data to fulfill your requirements.