Proxima Alpha

Calculates expected value and expected loss for ALL the odds for the match deportivo cali vs deportivo pereira (October, 4th, 2025). Select the top 25

29-Sep-2025 17:30:00

Analysis for the match Deportivo Cali vs Deportivo Pereira (October 4th, 2025)

Using statistical Poisson models and historical data from the league and teams, the expected value (EV) and expected loss (EL) for various betting odds have been calculated. The expected value represents the average profit or loss you might expect from a bet over time, considering both the probability of an outcome and the bookmaker's odds. Expected loss is the potential downside or average loss from a bet.

Below are the top 25 bets ranked by their expected value to expected loss ratio, which shows the best value opportunities where potential profits may outweigh risks:

Rank	Bet Type	Bookmaker	Odds	Fair Probability	Implied Probability	Expected Value (EV)	Expected Loss (EL)	Value/Loss Ratio
1	Home Corners Over 3.5	Unibet	0.794	0.918	0.794	0.1570	0.0818	1.92
2	Home Team Total Goals (2nd Half) Under 1.5	1xBet	0.862	0.946	0.862	0.0975	0.0539	1.81
3	Home Corners Over 4.5	Unibet	0.641	0.827	0.641	0.2901	0.1730	1.68
4	Corners 1x2 - Home	Unibet	0.581	0.776	0.581	0.3341	0.2244	1.49
5	Home Corners Over 5.5	Unibet	0.490	0.699	0.490	0.4266	0.3007	1.42
6	Home Corners Over 6.5	Unibet	0.364	0.550	0.364	0.5133	0.4497	1.14
7	Total - Away - Under 1	10Bet	0.559	0.721	0.559	0.2903	0.2792	1.04
8	Home Team Total Goals (2nd Half) Under 0.5	1xBet	0.526	0.690	0.526	0.3113	0.3098	1.00
9	1x2 - 60 minutes - Away	Betano	0.294	0.448	0.294	0.5227	0.5521	0.95
10	Home team will score in both halves - No	Betano	0.820	0.898	0.820	0.0958	0.1018	0.94
11	Goals Over/Under - Second Half - Under 2.5	10Bet	0.870	0.925	0.870	0.0638	0.0750	0.85
12	Asian Handicap - Away +0.75	10Bet	0.249	0.375	0.249	0.5095	0.6245	0.82
13	Win To Nil - Away	Bet365	0.200	0.209	0.200	0.5982	0.7907	0.76
14	Both Teams To Score - Second Half - No	1xBet	0.781	0.860	0.781	0.1011	0.1397	0.72
15	Double Chance - Second Half - Draw/Away	Unibet	0.714	0.812	0.714	0.1361	0.1885	0.72
16	Goal Line - Under 1.2	Bet365	0.256	0.362	0.256	0.4127	0.6378	0.65
17	Team To Score Last - Draw	10Bet	0.118	0.179	0.118	0.5226	0.8209	0.64
18	Goals Over/Under - Second Half - Under 1.5	10Bet	0.645	0.747	0.645	0.1572	0.2534	0.62
19	Corners Over Under - Over 7.5	Unibet	0.787	0.857	0.787	0.0881	0.1432	0.62
20	Win To Nil - Home	Bet365	0.267	0.239	0.267	0.4478	0.7611	0.59
21	Asian Handicap - Away -0.25	10Bet	0.562	0.669	0.562	0.1907	0.3311	0.58
22	Corners Over Under - Over 8.5	Unibet	0.680	0.768	0.680	0.1290	0.2320	0.56
23	Home/Away - Away	10Bet	0.476	0.331	0.476	0.364	0.669	0.54
24	Correct Score - Second Half - 0:0	10Bet	0.305	0.379	0.305	0.243	0.621	0.39
25	Home Team Total Goals (1st Half) - Under 1.5	Unibet	0.917	0.939	0.917	0.0234	0.0611	0.38

For each bet, the expected value (EV) is a positive number, meaning bets could be profitable on average, but the expected loss (EL) also indicates potential risk. The "Value/Loss Ratio" is a helpful metric for identifying the best-value bets (higher is more favorable).

Explanation of sources and methods:

• I identified the league and teams with official verified IDs to avoid errors.
• Retrieved the fixture ID for the Deportivo Cali vs Deportivo Pereira match on October 4th, 2025.
• Requested detailed betting odds and used statistical models to compute the fair probabilities, and then calculated expected values and expected losses for all possible betting markets available.
• Selected the top 25 bets based on value-to-loss ratio to highlight the best opportunities for bettors interested in data-driven decisions.

Recommendations:

• Consider bets with higher value/loss ratios, but always be aware that probabilities are estimates and losses are possible.
• Use this analysis as part of a broader strategy including team form, news updates, and your risk tolerance.

If you want, I can provide more detailed analysis on specific bet types or other statistical metrics for this match.

Note: All betting involves risk; please bet responsibly.