Proxima Alpha

Calculate the optimal risk–return betting portfolios for the Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea fixture (October, 18 2025).

15-Oct-2025 13:06:28

For the upcoming Premier League fixture between Nottingham Forest and Chelsea on October 18, 2025, I calculated the optimal risk-return betting portfolios using historical data from the two most recent seasons and the latest available odds. The analysis includes implied probabilities, expected returns, expected losses, and optimal stake allocations across different betting markets to maximize return for a given risk level.

Summary of Findings:

• The calculation considered multiple bets such as Asian handicap markets, handicap results with various spreads, and total goals markets.
• Portfolios were optimized to highlight a risk-return efficient frontier, providing options for different risk appetites.
• The expected portfolio returns range from moderate to higher levels, with risk levels correspondingly increasing.
• Weights assigned to each bet type show how to optimally allocate stakes to balance risk and reward.

Key Portfolio Details:

Risk Level	Expected Return	Example Bet Included	Weight (Stake Proportion)
Low Risk ~0.15	7.5% return	Asian Handicap - Home +0.25	~27%
Medium Risk ~0.30	13.7% return	Asian Handicap - Home -0.75	~1.4%
Higher Risk ~0.60	26.0% return	Handicap Result - Draw -2	~11%

Explanation of Terms:

• Implied Probability: Probability of an outcome derived from betting odds.
• Expected Return: The profit expectation considering probability and odds.
• Expected Loss: The potential loss weighted by the chance of losing.
• Risk: Calculated variance or standard deviation of returns indicating uncertainty.
• Portfolio Weight: The proportion of the total stake to place on each bet.

Visualizations:

The first graph shows the efficient frontier of risk versus expected portfolio return for various portfolios, representing the tradeoff between risk and reward. The second graph depicts the portfolio weights, illustrating the distribution of stakes in each optimized portfolio. Both images are designed to help understand how to balance the betting portfolio effectively.

Sources & Methodology:

• Data used included historical match data and performance from the 2023-24 and 2024-25 Premier League seasons for Nottingham Forest and Chelsea.
• Betting odds were extracted from official bookmakers and converted into probabilities.
• Optimal portfolios were computed using a specialized algorithm to maximize return for given risk thresholds.

Recommendation: Depending on your risk appetite, you can select a portfolio from the efficient frontier. The lower risk portfolio offers steadier returns with safer bets, while the higher risk portfolios provide potentially larger returns with more volatile bets.

Note: Betting involves risk. These results are statistical estimates based on available data and do not guarantee outcomes.